Hello Client, Partners, Friends and Family:

As we look ahead to the summer months, we can’t help but think what a challenging year it’s been.  At the same time, we’re encouraged by the resiliency of communities and accelerated innovation among US businesses and the efforts by our national, state, and local governments to support our communities.

In a similar way, the recent strength of the financial markets appears to be looking beyond continued economic weakness. Much of the economic news has been dismal, and there may be more bad news ahead, but economic data is backward-looking. It’s important to remember that the stock market looks forward.

• Economic numbers are still negative, but they aren’t as bad as they were a month ago, and that’s usually been a prelude to things starting to get better.
• New claims for unemployment are still historically high, but have improved eight weeks in a row, and the total number of people on the unemployment rolls has actually started to drop (US Labor Bureau).
• Manufacturing activity contracted in May, according to the Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers’ Index, but it was better than the prior month for the first time since January.
• New home sales rose in the most recent Census Bureau data for April, when they were widely expected to collapse.

Looking forward also means gauging the ongoing impact of fiscal support. In the U.S., Congress is working on a new stimulus package. The Europe recently announced an unprecedented 750 billion euro stimulus. Japan has announced additional stimulus that could bring its total pandemic response to 40% of that country’s gross domestic product (GDP). While debt levels are rising and may have to be addressed in the future, these current fiscal actions continue to play an important role in limiting any long-term economic damage from the recession.

The stock market may have gotten a little ahead of itself, and there still may be bouts of volatility, but recent gains in the S&P 500 Index are not out of character. Like us, the markets are seeing things to look forward to. Consider the recent rally as the stock market’s version of anticipating dinner out with friends, enjoying a ballgame, or planning a vacation. These may not be right around the corner, and there may be setbacks along the way, but the plans have been made.

In the meantime, stay safe, thank you for supporting your local small businesses, and please contact our team with any questions at info@arsenalfinancial.com or 781-335-9100.

Stay Well!

~Doug Orifice & the Arsenal Financial Team

Tracking # 1-05018220 (Exp. 06/21) 

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of June 3, 2020.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.